Journal article

Atmospheric water vapour transport in ACCESS-S2 and the potential for enhancing skill of subseasonal forecasts of precipitation

KJ Reid, D Hudson, AD King, TP Lane, AG Marshall

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society | WILEY | Published : 2024

Abstract

Extended warning of above-average and extreme precipitation is valuable to a wide range of stakeholders. However, the sporadic nature of precipitation makes it difficult to forecast skilfully beyond one week. Subseasonal forecasting is a growing area of science that aims to predict average weather conditions multiple weeks in advance using dynamical models. Building on recent work in this area, we test the hypothesis that using large-scale horizontal moisture transport as a predictor for precipitation may increase the forecast skill of the above-median and high-precipitation weeks on subseasonal time-scales. We analysed retrospective forecast (hindcast) sets from the Australian Bureau of Met..

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Grants

Awarded by National Computational Infrastructure


Funding Acknowledgements

The work of K. J. Reid was funded by an Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship and the Australian Research Council (ARC; DE180100638 and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, CE170100023). The work of A.D. King was funded by the ARC (DE180100638) and the National Environmental Science Program. The work of T.P. Lane was funded by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023). This research was undertaken with the assistance of resources from the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI Australia) supported by the Australian Government. Open access publishing facilitated by Monash University, as part of the Wiley - Monash University agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians.